Ryskt Om AUKUS
2025-10-07
Article by Minister Counsellor of the Russian Embassy in #India Vladimir Ladanov "The #AUKUS Submarine Agreement and #Russia’s Security Concerns" (Vivekananda International Foundation, October 4, 2025)Read in full
http://www.vifindia.org/.../The-AUKUS-Submarine-Agreement...Key theses:
There is no need to say much about the hostility of the Australian establishment towards Russia. Since 2022, #Australia’s successive cabinets of both denominations, Liberal/National and Labor, have been eager participants in a proxy war waged by the Western powers against Russia in Ukraine. Embracing American concept of great-power competition, Australia’s national security elite has put its foot on the accelerator of unbridled military integration with the #UnitedStates. Evolving US Enhanced Force Posture Initiatives in Australia aim to "support high-end warfighting and combined military operations in the region". [...] At this stage it is difficult to ascertain with a good degree of confidence whether in the future that may translate into the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) conducting combined operations with the US Navy against Russian nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) in the Far East. Nonetheless, such an option may not be discarded. In case of the patrol near Kamchatka by future Australian SSNs [to be supplied to Canberra under the AUKUS agreement] their operating mode will likely be to exploit the vulnerability of an SSBN exiting port by getting on the tails of the most threatening of the submarines in the vicinity of Vilyuchinsk. A hostile SSN with its crew well versed in under the ice operations and fitted out with ice navigation sensors is uniquely positioned to successfully penetrate the Sea of Okhotsk Bastion to seek out and shadow a patrolling Russian SSBN. Intent and capability analysis demonstrates that from the late 2030s onwards the RAN’s SSN capability will be at the level to pose a serious risk to the Russian Pacific Fleet’s strategic deterrent. It therefore should not be controversial if future Australian cabinets adopt a rational approach to addressing Russia’s concerns by implementing measures to reduce the chance of miscalculation, garbled reading of intentions and potentially inadvertent conflict arising from the RAN’s SSNs operating in a way that holds at risk SSBNs of the Russian Pacific Fleet. By doing so Australia will be serving its national interest best. Otherwise, strategic risk may become too high and potential cost too great. #NewDelhi and #Canberra enjoy a friendly relationship; there are frequent exchange visits by the military top brass and Australia welcomes India’s participation in its strategic level exercise Talisman Sabre that it conducts jointly with the United States. That being so, there is no guarantee that such a benevolent approach will last forever against the backdrop of shifting balances and allegiances in the Asia-Pacific. It is relevant to point out that the distance from the RAN’s future nuclear-powered attack submarine base HMAS Stirling to the Russian SSBN base Vilyuchinsk is around 6280 nautical miles, while the distance to #Visakhapatnam (Indian Navy’s SSBN base) is around 4060 nautical miles. It is prudent for India’s planners to be mindful of the implications of AUKUS and account for them in their risk assessment and plans.Read in full
https://www.vifindia.org/article/2025/october/04/The-AUKUS-Submarine-Agreement-and-Russia-s-Security-ConcernsVisa ditt stöd till det informationsarbete Carl genomför
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