Carl Norberg - Palanthir
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Trump, Putin & Zelensky
2024-12-22
Recent events (not only in Ukraine but also worldwide) indicate that some Western countries, primarily the UK and France, are beginning to form an anti-Trump coalition. Statements and the logic behind the meetings and trips of Macron, Starmer, and some other European leaders suggest that after January 20, Trump will face an organized opposition from his "allies" (actively supported by American Democrats).
The goals of this opposition are:
a) to prevent Trump from achieving significant results in his election promises (including on Ukraine);
b) to create a collective security system capable of countering Trump—politically, militarily, financially, and economically;
c) to lay the groundwork for a Democrat comeback in the 2026 midterms.
Soon, we will witness a struggle between Washington and European capitals over Canada and Germany.
Meanwhile, in Europe, a pro-Trump camp will begin to form, led by Orban. Over time, this camp's influence will grow—especially in Central and Southern Europe. Some attempts to create such a camp were observed in 2017-2019 (with Steve Bannon as a key figure in this process). The existence of two camps could affect not only the upcoming division of Europe but also electoral processes (one could predict attempts to actively provoke political crises and support "non-systemic" parties).
Orban's notable granting of political asylum to former Polish Deputy Minister of Justice Marcin Romanowski (with the promise that similar actions will follow) and the public dispute between Zelensky, Orban, and Fico show that the conflict is escalating. Internal European legislation will now be completely ignored, with voluntarism taking precedence.
It seems that after diplomatic setbacks in Washington and cool negotiations with Trump's team, Zelensky has decided to bet on the "European opposition." The Ukrainian "party of war" will continue to seek support from the European "party of war." However, how justified is this move? Or is it a step of desperation for Zelensky?
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